cloud_zhou - 2008/4/14 14:26:00
http://www.sina.com.cn 2008年04月10日 02:14 新浪财经
新浪财经讯 北京时间4月10日消息，前美联储主席保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)周三警告称，美联储官员不可忽略其基本任务，即保持通胀处于可控制范围之内。
沃尔克周三在哈佛大学肯尼迪政治学院新闻政治中心举办的一次会议上称，即使在目前的危机时期，美联储也不能逃避控制通胀水平的职责。他指出，虽然不能采取一贯的升息措施来抑制通胀，但美联储仍应在解决危机问题的同时保持通胀水平。他表示：“我们不希望20世纪70年代的情景重现。”沃尔克是在参与对当前金融危机本质的讨论时发表这一言论的。
包括几名现任美联储官员在内的一些人对美联储去年夏天以来激进的降息举措感到担忧，原因是其加大了美联储将在通胀问题上面临更多困扰的风险。不过，大多数官员相信，经济增长的减缓将缓和物价压力。
沃尔克称，他认为美国经济不会重现20世纪70年代物价持续上涨、经济增长陷入停滞的情景；但是，目前的形势与70年代初期的“停滞性通胀”时代有一些类似之处。
沃尔克还指出，美元兑其他主要汇率下跌将有助于重组美国经济；但与此同时，“稳定的美元对全球贸易繁荣来说十分重要”。
此外，沃尔克还表示，货币政策所能达成的影响是有限的。他指出：“我认为，在货币政策能做到什么和不能作到什么的问题上，我们应当采取审慎的态度。”(唐风)
cloud_zhou - 2008/4/14 14:29:00
News from globeandmail.comSaturday, April 12, 2008
A blunt former Fed chairman takes on Bernanke. Take heed of what he says
AVNER MANDELMAN
A few days ago an unusual event took place: Paul Volcker, themythical U.S. Federal Reserve Board chairman from the Reagan years,criticized the policy of the current Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, in aspeech to the Economic Club of New York.
Just so you grasp how extraordinary this was, you should firstunderstand that normally a past Fed chairman scrupulously avoids sayinganything at all about current Fed policy - for the simple reason thatthe current Fed chairman's words are one of his most important tools:They can sway markets.
This ability does not fade entirely when a Fed chairman leaves.
So when a past Fed chairman speaks, his words can clash with thoseof the present one and make that one's job difficult. Out ofprofessional courtesy, past Fed chairmen therefore keep quiet; Mr.Volcker especially - the man who hiked interest rates to 20 per cent tokill inflation, at the cost of a deep recession. But last week Mr.Volcker spoke his mind bluntly. He said, in effect, that the currentFed is not doing its job.
This would have been unusual enough. But Mr. Volcker went further.Not only is the Fed not doing its job, he said, but it is doing thewrong job: It is defending the economy and the market, instead ofdefending the dollar. And just to stick the knife in, Mr. Volcker addedthat this bad job now will make the real job - defending the greenback- much harder later. It'll cause even greater economic suffering.
In plain words, Mr. Volcker implied that the current Fed is not only incompetent, but that its actions are dangerous.
There is no record of Mr. Bernanke's reaction, nor that of anyoneelse inside the Fed. But there was plenty of buzz in the market becausewhat Mr. Volcker said amounted to a rousing call to raise interestrates. Yes, raise rates, and do it now.
Can you imagine what this would do to the market? I sure can, whichbrings me to the gap between physical economic reality as we witness itevery day in our physical investigations, and the surreal marketchatter we see and hear on TV. This gap has never been wider - but itwill inevitably close as markets catch up to reality - as just forecastby former president Ronald Reagan's Fed chairman. Let me cite threeitems, then go back to Mr. Volcker.
First, commercial real estate. You surely have read about theresidential real estate problems - subprime loans syndicated andresold, causing the implosion of several U.S. financial institutions.The writeoffs and damage here total close to a trillion dollars, saidthe IMF recently. That's about one-seventh of the U.S. gross domesticproduct, or more than three years of growth.
But what of commercial real estate? I heard recently from some savvyprivate real estate investors that although commercial real estate fellby 20 per cent, it should fall by a further 20 to 30 per cent before itprovides a reasonable rate of return. So whatever economic damage wasdone to the economy by residential real estate speculation mayeventually be equalled by commercial real estate. Say another 10th orseventh of GDP erased, or another two-three years of growth gone.
Second, there's also the war in Iraq. Some U.S. economists recentlyestimated it has cost about two trillion dollars to date - anothertwo-sevenths of U.S. GDP. That's five more years of GDP growth gone.
And third, we haven't even begun to tally the private equity blowups that are surely coming.
Taken all together, the economic damage spells a very bad and longrecession. How to fix it? No problem, say the actions of Mr. Bernanke'sFed. Let's print the missing money - and it doesn't matter if it causesinflation and tanks the dollar. Because that's not our job.
Up to now Mr. Volcker kept quiet, but no more. In his speech he justsaid, in effect, that the recession is not the Fed's problem. It's thegovernment's. The Fed's job is to defend the currency and fightinflation - exactly the opposite of what this Fed is doing. Thesolution? Raise interest rates, Mr. Volcker practically said, no matterthe consequences now, because if you don't, you'll have to raise themeven more later, with even more awful consequences.
Will rates indeed rise? I have no doubt they must. Not now, perhaps,but at the end of this year or the beginning of 2009, with a newpresident in the White House. The stock market, which usually looks sixto nine months ahead, already understands this and may soon react. Infact, when Mr. Volcker's words sink in, the markets are likely to sinkas this bear market rally ends.
For surely you understand we are still in a bear market - and onlyin the beginning of it? Yes, we are experiencing a rally, and like mostbear rallies, it is sharp and spiky. But when bear rallies end, theyleave a lot of spiked bulls behind - and this rally should be nodifferent. When it is over - in the next few weeks, methinks - thewaterfall could continue, as the market begins to digest theinevitability of higher inflation and higher interest rates ahead.
Against all protocol, Mr. Volcker just went out on a limb and warned you of this. I urge you to heed his words.
cloud_zhou - 2008/4/14 14:43:00
退休的美联储通常很少在公开场合直接批评现任美联储主席的政策。
沃尔克这次显然是破了大戒。
沃尔克是里根时代的美联储主席，最著名的政策就是采用高达20%的利率压制高通胀。
主要观点很简单：
* 美联储的任务是维护美元，防止高通胀，不是预防经济衰退
* 对抗经济衰退的任务是白宫和联邦政府的任务
* 现阶段的危机既是金融监管的危机，过去过于宽松货币政策引发的危机，周期性的衰退
* 美联储现在应该加息，而不是降利率
* 美联储应该让经济进入衰退，而不是加印钞票，更不应让美元无限制贬值
* 美联储现在不加息，将来加息的痛苦会更大